Ask three people in the smartphone business if the market has finally bounced back from two years of slowdown, and you’ll get three different answers. One will point to Counterpoint’s 2025 forecast—up 3% year over year—and call it a rebound. Another will say the numbers are too thin to matter. A third will argue the industry never recovered at all—it just learned how to make stagnation look good.
The data supports all three views at once. Phones are selling again, but global shipments have barely moved. Yet revenues keep climbing. Counterpoint’s data shows global premium smartphone sales jumped 8% in the first half of 2025, pushing average selling prices to record highs. Buyers are holding onto devices longer and spending more when they finally do upgrade.
So is the industry recovering or just reorganising around a smaller, wealthier customer base? The answer depends on where you’re standing—and what you’re selling.
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Last updated: December 8, 2025
