MTN Nigeria, the nation’s largest telecommunications company, is expected to generate ₦4.9 trillion in revenue by the end of 2025, its strongest annual growth in over five years. This estimate is driven by the positive impact of recent tariff hikes, effective cost management and stronger-than-expected voice and data demand, according to a report by CardinalStone.
The development will excite investors after MTN turned two years of steep losses into profitability by rebounding to a ₦133.7 billion profit in Q1 2025, as reported in its official earnings release. Revenues for the quarter surged by 40.5% year-on-year to ₦1.05 trillion.
The Q1 2025 recovery was largely driven by a 27.7% YoY rise in voice revenue, bolstered by tariff adjustments,relatively inelastic consumer demand and a projected 68.2% rise in data revenue for the full year. Additionally, a 50% increase in data tariffs and the migration of voice-only users to data services drove the uptick.
MTN’s performance contrasts with Nigeria’s challenging macroeconomic landscape. Inflation remains above 22% as of April 2025, per the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the naira has depreciated significantly as of May 2025, trading above ₦1,500/$ according to CBN exchange rates.
Yet, MTN has maintained its top-line growth, suggesting robust pricing power and demand resilience. Its recent tariff revisions, which were implemented following regulatory consultations with the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), have not triggered a major drop in subscriber activity.
MTN’s data strategy is aligned with Nigeria’s National Broadband Plan (2020–2025), which targets 70% broadband penetration. With Q1 2025 data usage growth moderating to 29.5%, MTN is relying on higher tariffs and enhanced network quality to sustain revenue momentum.
The telco, boasting 84 million subscribers, continues to expand its 5G network, with coverage now live in over 14 Nigerian cities following its 2022 spectrum acquisition. The company has also ramped up investments in fibre rollout and tower partnerships, including with IHS Towers and MainOne, to boost service delivery and reduce operational costs.
MTN’s aggressive execution is giving it an edge over key rivals. While Airtel Nigeria also saw modest revenue growth in its Q1 report, it trailed MTN in data monetisation and margin expansion. Globacom, Nigeria’s third-largest telecom operator, has seen its market share plunge to a record low of 11.9% amid persistent network outages, poor service quality, and governance issues.
The telco’s fundamentals are boosting investor confidence, as reflected in its share price rising to 4.28%today’s trading. After a volatile 2024, the stock is showing signs of stabilisation, with analysts optimistic due to the company’s strong cost controls and increasingly diversified revenue streams.
According to CardinalStone’s outlook, voice revenue is expected to grow 31.0% in FY 2025, while EBITDA margins improve by 7.2 percentage points in Q1 2025. These metrics indicate strong operational leverage in a high-cost environment.
