Nigeria’s inflation and banditry crisis ignite food security emergency

A perfect storm of climate change and relentless insecurity has pushed Nigeria into one of the gravest food crises in its history. A new report by SBM Intelligence paints a harrowing picture that nearly 100 million Nigerians are now food-insecure, while inflation skyrocketed to 35.41% in January 2024 driven primarily by collapsed agricultural production and surging food prices.

The report outlines how the country’s “food basket”—the Middle Belt region—is being systematically destroyed by banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, and unchecked environmental disasters. With over 2.2 million internally displaced people and more than 180,000 farmlands flooded or abandoned, the report warns that the crisis now threatens national stability.

Read also: Nigeria’s beloved Jollof Rice cost soar, reflecting inflation crisis 

Banditry and armed conflict as the unseen inflation drivers

While many Nigerians blame currency devaluation and fuel prices for rising inflation, the true culprits are also found deep in the northern farmlands, where AK-47-wielding militias have turned agriculture into a warfront. In Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Zamfara, entire villages have been razed, farms torched, and grain stores looted. Over 1.3 million farmers were displaced in the North Central and Northwest regions by April 2024 alone, wiping out large-scale food production.

In Zamfara, where nearly 700,000 people have fled bandit attacks, farming has become a fatal gamble.

This devastation has decimated national supply chains, pushing food prices beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. A bag of rice now sells for ₦80,000 in Lagos. Cassava, beans, and tomatoes have all followed suit.

Climate change accelerates the collapse

The climate crisis is intensifying the carnage. From July 2024 to early 2025, floods ravaged 31 out of 36 states, drowning farmland and collapsing infrastructure. In Borno State, the Alau Dam burst displaced thousands and sparked a cholera outbreak exemplifying the deadly nexus between environmental and humanitarian breakdown.

Meanwhile, desertification in northern states like Sokoto and Katsina is reducing arable land by over 350,000 hectares annually, forcing pastoralists southward. This migration inflames old tensions with settled farmers, stoking deadly clashes that further cripple agricultural output.

Despite policies like the National Livestock Transformation Plan and 17 anti-open grazing laws passed across the country, enforcement remains weak or politicised. Military operations such as Exercise Ayem Akpatuma have yielded only temporary calm.

Experts blame political inertia, lack of prosecution, and deep-seated mistrust.

Why this matters for Agritech companies

This crisis presents both a challenge and a call to action for agritech companies operating in Nigeria and West Africa. The collapse of traditional farming systems due to insecurity and erratic weather patterns has created a desperate need for innovations in remote crop monitoring, climate-smart agriculture, precision irrigation, digital extension services, and supply chain traceability. However, the deepening insecurity also threatens physical infrastructure, field deployment, and investor confidence in scaling these solutions.

In effect, the success or failure of agritech in Nigeria now hinges on national stability, integrated conflict resolution, and climate resilience strategies. Any agritech intervention that ignores these root crises will struggle to gain traction.

The SBM report recommends urgent structural reforms. These include land rights reform, disarmament of non-state actors, irrigation investment, and climate-resilient agriculture. More importantly, the government must harmonise policies across states and end the security loopholes that allow violence to shift from state to state.

For now, time is running out. If current trends continue, over 52 million Nigerians could fall into acute hunger by mid-2025.