MTN’s earnings to rebound, backed by strategic Nigerian investments

MTN Group is signalling a strong earnings revival, with headline earnings per share expected to surge into positive territory for the first half of 2025, driven in large part by bold infrastructure investments and strategic partnerships in Nigeria.

The telecoms giant on Tuesday announced a projected share range of R6.14($0.35) to R6.66($0.38), reversing a loss of R2.56($0.14) in the same period last year. Adjusted for non-operational items, the share price is forecast to rise by 68% to 82% year-on-year. The announcement sent MTN group shares up 3.4% on the day, capping a 112% rally over the past 12 months.

The earnings momentum is underpinned by MTN’s recent expansion moves in Nigeria, the group’s most lucrative market. In July, MTN Nigeria commissioned the first phase of a $240 million prefabricated modular data centre in Ikeja, Lagos. The Tier III facility, named after the late former CEO Sifiso Dabengwa, currently delivers 4.5 MW of capacity and is expected to scale up to 9 MW in subsequent phases.

Designed to power West Africa’s growing demand for cloud computing, AI workloads, and enterprise services, the facility positions MTN as a key digital infrastructure provider in the region. It is one of the largest deployments of its kind on the continent.

“This facility represents our long-term commitment to deepening Nigeria’s digital ecosystem,” said Karl Toriola, CEO of MTN Nigeria, at the launch. “We’re not just expanding capacity—we’re building the backbone of Africa’s data future.”

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In a complementary move, MTN Nigeria also entered into a three-year national roaming agreement with 9mobile, approved by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in early July. The deal allows 9mobile subscribers to seamlessly roam on MTN’s network infrastructure, beginning in Lagos and extending nationwide by the end of the month.

The partnership could effectively restore network access for up to 22 million former 9mobile users, whose active base had dwindled to 3.2 million as of early 2025. Beyond roaming, the deal includes plans for spectrum leasing, signalling deeper infrastructure-sharing across the industry.

Analysts say the agreement strengthens MTN’s leadership position while helping stabilise Nigeria’s competitive telecom landscape. Already, the telco comfortably owns 52% of the market in Nigeria.

Meanwhile, MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana both delivered strong interim results in July, offsetting headwinds in the South African market where prepaid revenue remains under pressure.

The group will release its full H1 2025 financials on August 18.

If current momentum holds, MTN’s strategic playbook in Nigeria could serve as a blueprint for unlocking growth in other underserved markets across the continent.