Quantum-Readiness in Nigerian cryptographic systems: A strategic blind spot?

As Nigeria advances its digital economy agenda, questions about the resilience of our digital systems in the face of quantum computing remain dangerously underexplored. While national cybersecurity strategies routinely focus on ransomware, phishing, and poor endpoint hygiene, there is a looming, highly consequential threat that has yet to receive commensurate attention: the advent of quantum computing and its impact on cryptographic security.

Quantum computers, once matured, will render most of today’s public key cryptographic systems obsolete. Algorithms like RSA-2048, Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), and Diffie-Hellman, which currently secure everything from mobile banking to government data exchanges, are all susceptible to Shor’s algorithm, a quantum method capable of factoring large numbers exponentially faster than classical algorithms. According to the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), a quantum computer capable of breaking RSA-2048 may be possible within the next 10 to 20 years, though some estimates suggest it could come sooner.

This shift is not hypothetical; it is already driving global action. NIST has finalised its first group of post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithms, including Kyber (for key encapsulation) and Dilithium (for digital signatures), set to replace vulnerable standards. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has issued migration roadmaps, while the European Union has allocated over €1 billion to quantum-safe research under its Quantum Flagship initiative. In contrast, Nigeria’s current cybersecurity and data protection frameworks, including the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation (NDPR) and the draft National Cybersecurity Policy, remain silent on post-quantum threats.

This silence is problematic given the exponential growth of Nigeria’s digital ecosystem. As of this year, 2024, over 60 million Nigerians are enrolled in the National Identity Number (NIN) database, and digital banking services handle trillions of naira in annual transactions. Both systems rely heavily on Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), making them prime targets for “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks where adversaries intercept encrypted data today to decrypt it in a quantum-enabled future. State-sponsored threat actors from countries like China and Russia are already believed to be engaging in such long-term espionage strategies.

Nigeria’s fintech industry, valued at over $4 billion and attracting roughly 25% of Africa’s tech funding in 2023, relies on cloud-native applications and blockchain-based platforms, both of which are fundamentally dependent on classical cryptography. Without a clear strategy for cryptographic migration, these innovations are inherently vulnerable.

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To close this readiness gap, Nigeria must take deliberate steps to initiate a national conversation and implementation plan around quantum-resilient cryptography. These steps include:

1. Comprehensive Crypto Inventory: A full audit of cryptographic systems across federal and state IT infrastructure, including identification of all quantum-vulnerable algorithms.
2. Strategic Alignment with Global Standards: Nigeria should mirror NIST’s PQC migration guidance and participate in global bodies like the ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 27, which sets international standards for IT security techniques.
3. Regional Collaboration: Working with the African Union and ECOWAS to develop regional frameworks for quantum-safe encryption, creating unified standards for secure cross-border digital services.
4. Academic and Industry Incentives: Provide grants and incubation programs to encourage local research institutions and startups to experiment with PQC and lattice-based cryptographic methods.
5. Legislative Integration: Update existing cybersecurity laws and regulations to mandate quantum-safe practices within critical infrastructure and digital ID ecosystems.

Nigeria has a history of leapfrogging legacy systems, mobile money and digital lending being prime examples. We can apply this same mindset to cybersecurity by preparing now for the quantum future. Failure to do so risks compromising national security, economic stability, and digital sovereignty.

In conclusion, quantum-readiness is not a luxury; it is a strategic imperative. The timeline may be uncertain, but the threat is inevitable. Nigeria must act not out of panic, but out of foresight. The cost of inaction will be far greater than the investment required today. By proactively embracing quantum-safe infrastructure, Nigeria can safeguard its digital future and maintain credibility in the global cybersecurity arena.

Editor’s Note:

Written by Morgan Nwaiku. Nwaiku is currently a distinguished cybersecurity professional and researcher. Holding an MSc in Cybersecurity from a UK institution and a BSc in Computer Engineering, his career spans collaborations with Nigeria’s tech unicorns and global innovation hubs. Renowned for pioneering AI-driven anomaly detection algorithms, Morgan has fortified cloud security frameworks, revolutionising authentication and authorisation processes to safeguard critical assets against evolving cyber threats. His work empowers organisations to address vulnerabilities in complex digital ecosystems preemptively. Morgan contributes part-time to Outlier, a firm that advances AI systems through large-model training, while maintaining an influential presence in both industry and academia.