Nigeria’s inflation accelerates to 24.23% post-rebasing

Nigeria’s inflation rate accelerated in March 2025, reeling from the effects of a weak naira and heightened energy prices. The marginal increase is coming on the back of a rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) that impacted key components in the inflation basket.

Headline inflation increased to 24.23% in March, up from 23.18% in February 2025, reflecting a balance between moderating and upward pressures. This adjustment softened the effect of rising food prices, even as underlying pressures remained. Food inflation for March was 21.09%, down from 23.51% recorded in February.

Previously, analysts believed that Nigeria’s inflation rate was nearing an inflection point. But as it stands, the majority of the analysts have changed their stance, expecting a general moderation through the year. This anticipation includes some expected shocks in response to market and economic developments as they unfold in 2025.

“On the positive side, the continued effect of rebasing and favorable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence,” Samuel Onyekanmi, an analyst at Norrenberger, told Condia. 

“Conversely, the depreciation of the naira toward the latter part of March and the increase in petrol prices may introduce upward pressure on prices. Overall, we anticipate a gradual easing in headline inflation in the near term.”

The current inflation rate is expected to influence the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy stance at its upcoming meeting in May 2025. However, concerns remain regarding potential upward pressure on consumer prices if energy and petroleum costs remain elevated. Nigerians are also adjusting to the possibility of renewed food price increases as the naira’s recent gains begin to reverse.